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“十三五”潜在经济增速至少在7%

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月25日 20:32:12
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(  “十)(二)(五)(”已)(经)(开)(始)(倒)(计)(时)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(正)(在)(艰)(难)(地)(转)(型)(、复)(苏)(。“十)(三)(五)(”即)(将)(开)(始)(,肩)(负)(着)(全)(面)(建)(成)(小)(康)(社)(会)(的)(重)(担)(,未)(来)(五)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(之)(路)(难)(言)(轻)(松)(。
  国)(家)(发)(改)(委)(近)(日)(发)(表)(文)(章)(称)(,7月)(份)(以)(来)(,经)(济)(运)(行)(虽)(有)(波)(动)(,但)(积)(极)(因)(素)(也)(在)(不)(断)(积)(聚)(;多)(数)(传)(统)(产)(业)(增)(速)(有)(所)(下)(滑)(,新)(兴)(产)(业)(和)(高)(技)(术)(产)(业)(继)(续)(保)(持)(较)(快)(发)(展)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(结)(构)(不)(断)(优)(化)(,消)(费)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(增)(长)(。
  国)(务)(院)(发)(展)(研)(究)(中)(心)(经)(济)(研)(究)(部)(研)(究)(员)(张)(立)(群)(分)(析)(,在)(新)(型)(城)(镇)(化)(过)(程)(中)(形)(成)(的)(新)(的)(城)(市)(集)(群)(发)(展)(模)(式)(,将)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(缓)(解)(目)(前)(内)(需)(不)(足)(的)(现)(状)(,为)(“十)(三)(五)(”期)(间)(的)(经)(济)(发)(展)(提)(供)(强)(劲)(动)(力)(。
  本)(月)(24日)(在)(“中)(国)(CEO年)(会)(经)(济)(论)(坛)(暨)(首)(届)(商)(会)(领)(袖)((天)(津)()论)(坛)(”上)(,张)(立)(群)(接)(受)(《每)(日)(经)(济)(新)(闻)(》记)(者)(采)(访)(时)(表)(示)(,考)(虑)(到)(城)(镇)(化)(等)(因)(素)(带)(动)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,预)(计)(“十)(三)(五)(”时)(期)(经)(济)(增)(速)(将)(呈)(现)(出)(前)(低)(后)(高)(的)(态)(势)(,前)(期)(经)(济)(增)(速)(在)(7%左)(右)(,后)(期)(可)(能)(会)(比)(7%高)(一)(些)(。
  中)(国)(经)(济)(基)(本)(面)(未)(变)(
  NBD:我)(们)(看)(到)(近)(期)(公)(布)(的)(经)(济)(数)(字)(都)(是)(不)(大)(好)(看)(的)(,包)(括)(一)(些)(国)(际)(知)(名)(经)(济)(学)(家)(在)(内)(的)(许)(多)(人)(也)(在)(唱)(衰)(中)(国)(经)(济)(,认)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(已)(经)(失)(去)(了)(人)(口)(红)(利)(,债)(务)(率)(过)(高)(,甚)(至)(出)(现)(了)(“中)(国)(崩)(溃)(论)(”这)(样)(的)(说)(法)(。您)(怎)(么)(看)(?
  张)(立)(群)(:我)(是)(不)(赞)(同)(这)(些)(说)(法)(的)(,我)(认)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(基)(本)(面)(到)(目)(前)(为)(止)(没)(有)(发)(生)(根)(本)(的)(改)(变)(,人)(力)(资)(源)(、储)(蓄)(和)(资)(金)(以)(及)(技)(术)(的)(供)(给)(条)(件)(都)(没)(有)(大)(的)(变)(化)(。
  人)(力)(资)(源)(方)(面)(,15岁)(~64岁)(的)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(总)(量)(仍)(然)(在)(10亿)(以)(上)(,就)(业)(人)(口)(总)(量)(还)(是)(7亿)(多)(,与)(劳)(动)(年)(龄)(人)(口)(总)(量)(比)(较)(差)(距)(明)(显)(。这)(表)(明)(中)(国)(人)(力)(资)(源)(供)(给)(条)(件)(没)(有)(发)(生)(明)(显)(改)(变)(,所)(以)(说)(总)(体)(仍)(处)(于)(劳)(动)(力)(利)(用)(不)(充)(分)(状)(态)(。资)(金)(供)(给)(条)(件)(也)(没)(有)(发)(生)(明)(显)(改)(变)(,2002到)(2014年)(,中)(国)(国)(民)(总)(储)(蓄)(率)(持)(续)(保)(持)(在)(40%以)(上)(的)(较)(高)(水)(平)(,目)(前)(人)(民)(币)(存)(款)(余)(额)(达)(到)(132万)(亿)(元)(,其)(中)(个)(人)(存)(款)(余)(额)(53万)(亿)(元)(,支)(持)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(储)(蓄)(和)(资)(金)(供)(给)(仍)(然)(比)(较)(充)(足)(。技)(术)(和)(制)(度)(等)(方)(面)(的)(条)(件)(也)(没)(有)(发)(生)(明)(显)(改)(变)(。
  2002到)(2014年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(年)(均)(增)(长)(9.92%,如)(果)(以)(这)(一)(中)(长)(期)(的)(产)(出)(水)(平)(为)(依)(据)(,则)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(潜)(在)(经)(济)(增)(长)(率)(在)(9%以)(上)(;考)(虑)(到)(持)(续)(高)(增)(长)(造)(成)(的)(资)(源)(配)(置)(效)(率)(降)(低)(,加)(入)(提)(高)(资)(源)(配)(置)(效)(率)(的)(条)(件)(后)(,中)(国)(的)(潜)(在)(经)(济)(增)(长)(率)(至)(少)(也)(在)(7%以)(上)(。
  NBD:但)(是)(我)(们)(看)(到)(目)(前)(的)(经)(济)(发)(展)(中)(确)(实)(遇)(到)(了)(很)(多)(问)(题)(,您)(认)(为)(什)(么)(问)(题)(是)(最)(关)(键)(的)(?
  张)(立)(群)(:现)(在)(的)(核)(心)(是)(城)(镇)(化)(问)(题)(,具)(体)(表)(现)(就)(是)(大)(城)(市)(装)(不)(下)(,中)(小)(城)(市)(缺)(少)(就)(业)(机)(会)(,这)(个)(矛)(盾)(集)(中)(表)(现)(在)(对)(需)(求)(的)(制)(约)(上)(。
  中)(国)(过)(去)(一)(直)(是)(城)(市)(分)(散)(发)(展)(的)(模)(式)(,各)(自)(为)(政)(,这)(种)(模)(式)(会)(导)(致)(城)(市)(间)(差)(距)(越)(来)(越)(大)(。大)(城)(市)(由)(于)(各)(种)(原)(因)(,在)(公)(共)(服)(务)(和)(基)(础)(设)(施)(等)(很)(多)(方)(面)(发)(展)(较)(好)(,人)(口)(和)(产)(业)(的)(聚)(集)(度)(不)(断)(提)(高)(,越)(是)(提)(高)(进)(步)(的)(动)(力)(就)(越)(强)(。
  可)(是)(这)(就)(导)(致)(大)(城)(市)(装)(不)(下)(,而)(中)(小)(城)(市)(人)(们)(又)(不)(愿)(意)(去)(,我)(认)(为)(这)(是)(目)(前)(我)(国)(城)(镇)(化)(一)(个)(非)(常)(突)(出)(的)(矛)(盾)(。
  这)(个)(矛)(盾)(已)(经)(导)(致)(汽)(车)(和)(住)(房)(两)(大)(市)(场)(都)(在)(调)(整)(。大)(城)(市)(车)(太)(多)(,堵)(车)(严)(重)(,于)(是)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(大)(城)(市)(出)(台)(了)(限)(购)(政)(策)(,使)(得)(汽)(车)(市)(场)(明)(显)(降)(温)(。从)(2002年)(到)(2010年)(,汽)(车)(销)(量)(年)(均)(增)(长)(24%,但)(是)(2011年)(到)(2014年)(,年)(均)(增)(长)(只)(有)(7%,今)(年)(1到)(7月)(份)(同)(比)(增)(长)(不)(到)(3%。
  房)(地)(产)(方)(面)(,大)(城)(市)(人)(口)(多)(,可)(是)(近)(几)(年)(大)(城)(市)(建)(设)(用)(地)(紧)(张)(、拿)(地)(难)(的)(矛)(盾)(越)(来)(越)(突)(出)(。可)(以)(看)(到)(城)(镇)(商)(品)(房)(的)(销)(售)(面)(积)(,从)(2002年)(到)(2009年)(年)(均)(增)(长)(19.8%,2010年)(到)(2014年)(年)(均)(增)(长)(只)(有)(3.6%,其)(中)(去)(年)(是)(负)(增)(长)(7.8%。
  这)(两)(大)(市)(场)(的)(降)(温)(,导)(致)(了)(对)(重)(化)(工)(业)(需)(求)(的)(降)(温)(,对)(能)(源)(、装)(备)(制)(造)(业)(需)(求)(的)(降)(温)(,内)(需)(增)(长)(开)(始)(降)(温)(,这)(一)(系)(列)(的)(变)(化)(就)(是)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(。
  京)(津)(冀)(探)(路)(新)(型)(城)(镇)(化)(
  NBD:这)(样)(的)(降)(温)(会)(不)(会)(在)(长)(时)(间)(内)(造)(成)(经)(济)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(?
  张)(立)(群)(:我)(们)(不)(能)(把)(由)(于)(这)(些)(原)(因)(导)(致)(的)(阶)(段)(性)(需)(求)(不)(足)(和)(增)(速)(换)(挡)(,视)(作)(中)(国)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(力)(持)(续)(下)(降)(的)(表)(现)(。
  中)(国)(的)(城)(镇)(化)(正)(在)(探)(索)(新)(的)(模)(式)(,将)(从)(过)(去)(各)(个)(城)(市)(分)(散)(发)(展)(的)(模)(式)(,转)(到)(城)(市)(群)(主)(导)(的)(模)(式)(。这)(种)(模)(式)(就)(是)(实)(现)(在)(城)(市)(群)(范)(围)(内)(的)(同)(城)(化)(,大)(、中)(、小)(城)(市)(在)(基)(础)(设)(施)(配)(套)(水)(平)(以)(及)(基)(本)(公)(共)(服)(务)(保)(障)(水)(平)(上)(实)(现)(同)(城)(化)(。
  这)(不)(仅)(有)(助)(于)(提)(高)(城)(市)(的)(承)(载)(能)(力)(,使)(得)(产)(业)(在)(大)(中)(小)(城)(市)(间)(合)(理)(布)(局)(的)(空)(间)(明)(显)(扩)(大)(,也)(将)(扩)(大)(就)(业)(和)(人)(口)(在)(城)(市)(间)(转)(移)(的)(空)(间)(,进)(一)(步)(为)(汽)(车)(市)(场)(的)(发)(展)(、住)(房)(市)(场)(的)(发)(展)(提)(供)(支)(持)(。
  随)(着)(新)(型)(城)(镇)(化)(的)(推)(进)(,由)(房)(地)(产)(和)(汽)(车)(市)(场)(的)(发)(展)(而)(带)(来)(的)(国)(内)(需)(求)(增)(长)(潜)(力)(会)(不)(断)(增)(大)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(市)(场)(空)(间)(可)(以)(得)(到)(有)(效)(扩)(大)(。
  所)(以)(我)(说)(“十)(三)(五)(”期)(间)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(潜)(力)(非)(常)(大)(,也)(不)(赞)(同)(中)(国)(经)(济)(下)(台)(阶)(的)(说)(法)(,目)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(是)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(调)(整)(。
  在)(这)(个)(基)(础)(上)(,我)(判)(断)(中)(国)(经)(济)(在)(“十)(三)(五)(”期)(间)(将)(会)(呈)(现)(“前)(低)(后)(高)(”的)(态)(势)(,经)(济)(增)(速)(的)(起)(点)(水)(平)(应)(该)(是)(7%,后)(期)(会)(更)(高)(一)(些)(。
  NBD:您)(说)(到)(的)(“大)(城)(市)(装)(不)(下)(,小)(城)(市)(不)(愿)(意)(去)(”的)(问)(题)(在)(京)(津)(冀)(地)(区)(是)(非)(常)(明)(显)(的)(。在)(新)(型)(城)(镇)(化)(过)(程)(中)(,应)(该)(怎)(么)(看)(京)(津)(冀)(协)(同)(发)(展)(的)(意)(义)(?
  张)(立)(群)(:我)(们)(的)(城)(市)(从)(原)(来)(各)(自)(为)(政)(的)(发)(展)(,到)(未)(来)(抱)(团)(的)(集)(群)(发)(展)(,还)(需)(要)(探)(索)(和)(实)(践)(。京)(津)(冀)(目)(前)(的)(实)(践)(,也)(是)(在)(新)(型)(城)(镇)(化)(过)(程)(中)(所)(作)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(探)(索)(。
  这)(种)(探)(索)(一)(方)(面)(缓)(解)(北)(京)(承)(载)(能)(力)(不)(足)(的)(矛)(盾)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(也)(可)(以)(带)(动)(北)(京)(周)(边)(城)(市)(经)(济)(、社)(会)(的)(发)(展)(。
  目)(前)(北)(京)(周)(边)(的)(燕)(郊)(、张)(家)(口)(等)(地)(的)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(已)(经)(开)(始)(拉)(动)(。未)(来)(随)(着)(基)(础)(设)(施)(的)(一)(体)(化)(以)(及)(基)(本)(公)(共)(服)(务)(的)(同)(城)(化)(,我)(认)(为)(京)(津)(冀)(地)(区)(协)(调)(发)(展)(的)(态)(势)(将)(会)(越)(来)(越)(明)(显)(。
  转)(变)(发)(展)(方)(式)(将)(是)(主)(线)(
  NBD:从)(企)(业)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,您)(认)(为)(“十)(三)(五)(”期)(间)(最)(需)(要)(解)(决)(的)(问)(题)(是)(什)(么)(?
  张)(立)(群)(:刚)(才)(说)(过)(,内)(需)(降)(温)(,而)(外)(需)(在)(经)(济)(危)(机)(后)(也)(在)(降)(温)(,所)(以)(说)(中)(高)(速)(增)(长)(是)(新)(常)(态)(的)(核)(心)(特)(征)(,短)(期)(内)(是)(不)(会)(改)(变)(的)(。
  新)(常)(态)(与)(旧)(常)(态)(的)(区)(别)(,我)(认)(为)(一)(个)(主)(要)(区)(别)(就)(是)(市)(场)(从)(普)(遍)(的)(短)(缺)(,转)(向)(了)(普)(遍)(的)(过)(剩)(。在)(短)(缺)(的)(市)(场)(下)(,企)(业)(主)(要)(解)(决)(有)(没)(有)(的)(矛)(盾)(,看)(谁)(扩)(张)(得)(快)(,就)(能)(挣)(到)(更)(多)(的)(钱)(。但)(是)(在)(过)(剩)(的)(市)(场)(上)(,要)(求)(的)(是)(解)(决)(好)(不)(好)(的)(矛)(盾)(,做)(到)(又)(好)(又)(便)(宜)(,才)(能)(够)(在)(新)(常)(态)(下)(获)(得)(持)(续)(发)(展)(。
  所)(以)(我)(们)(现)(在)(面)(对)(的)(就)(是)(从)(“做)(得)(快)(”转)(向)(“做)(得)(好)(”,从)(解)(决)(“有)(没)(有)(”转)(向)(解)(决)(“好)(不)(好)(”的)(机)(遇)(,而)(所)(有)(的)(中)(等)(收)(入)(陷)(阱)(都)(是)(在)(这)(个)(时)(期)(暴)(露)(出)(来)(的)(。
  从)(制)(度)(上)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(通)(过)(放)(权)(让)(利)(、增)(强)(活)(力)(,很)(容)(易)(解)(决)(从)(无)(到)(有)(的)(矛)(盾)(,但)(是)(要)(解)(决)(第)(二)(个)(矛)(盾)(,中)(国)(要)(真)(的)(达)(到)(接)(近)(日)(本)(、德)(国)(制)(造)(的)(水)(平)(,接)(近)(美)(国)(创)(新)(的)(水)(平)(,对)(制)(度)(的)(要)(求)(就)(高)(很)(多)(。
  因)(为)(制)(度)(的)(完)(善)(推)(动)(人)(的)(素)(质)(提)(高)(、企)(业)(素)(质)(的)(提)(高)(,由)(此)(带)(来)(制)(造)(水)(平)(的)(提)(高)(、工)(作)(水)(平)(的)(提)(高)(、政)(府)(效)(率)(的)(提)(高)(,这)(些)(才)(是)(中)(国)(能)(够)(在)(新)(常)(态)(的)(背)(景)(下)(开)(启)(新)(发)(展)(的)(关)(键)(。所)(以)(从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,转)(变)(发)(展)(方)(式)(将)(是)(“十)(三)(五)(”期)(间)(的)(一)(条)(主)(线)(。
  NBD:您)(刚)(才)(也)(提)(到)(国)(际)(环)(境)(的)(变)(化)(,今)(年)(前)(7个)(月)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(已)(经)(下)(降)(了)(6612亿)(元)(,您)(认)(为)(从)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(的)(层)(面)(,国)(内)(的)(流)(动)(性)(是)(不)(是)(已)(经)(比)(较)(紧)(张)(?
  张)(立)(群)(:从)(7月)(份)(的)(金)(融)(指)(标)(来)(看)(,包)(括)(社)(会)(融)(资)(指)(标)(、贷)(款)(增)(长)(以)(及)(资)(金)(价)(格)(,目)(前)(资)(金)(形)(式)(还)(不)(是)(很)(紧)(张)(。
  但)(是)(随)(着)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(逐)(步)(恢)(复)(,美)(国)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(也)(在)(进)(行)(调)(整)(,其)(他)(一)(些)(主)(要)(国)(际)(货)(币)(政)(策)(也)(在)(调)(整)(,这)(就)(导)(致)(资)(金)(的)(流)(动)(方)(向)(发)(生)(了)(改)(变)(。
  现)(在)(资)(金)(外)(流)(的)(速)(度)(有)(所)(加)(快)(,要)(保)(持)(国)(内)(合)(理)(的)(流)(动)(性)(,就)(需)(要)(密)(切)(监)(测)(,适)(时)(适)(度)(地)(采)(取)(措)(施)(,来)(补)(充)(由)(于)(外)(汇)(资)(金)(流)(出)(导)(致)(的)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(问)(题)(。
  不)(过)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(基)(点)(应)(该)(着)(眼)(于)(国)(内)(流)(动)(性)(的)(适)(度)(,在)(这)(一)(基)(础)(上)(形)(成)(人)(民)(币)(和)(其)(他)(多)(种)(国)(家)(货)(币)(汇)(率)(合)(理)(的)(、大)(体)(平)(稳)(的)(调)(整)(,目)(前)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(还)(是)(在)(这)(个)(方)(向)(上)(变)(化)(的)(。
  目)(前)(这)(种)(变)(化)(对)(于)(外)(贸)(出)(口)(企)(业)(的)(发)(展)(条)(件)(的)(确)(是)(有)(积)(极)(影)(响)(,但)(是)(由)(于)(目)(前)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(幅)(度)(并)(不)(是)(很)(大)(,和)(欧)(元)(、日)(元)(相)(比)(贬)(值)(幅)(度)(要)(低)(很)(多)(,所)(以)(对)(于)(出)(口)(的)(影)(响)(还)(是)(有)(限)(。
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